Earlier this evening, both the US and Iran have each announced that a two-week ceasefire has been agreed to. I employ this somewhat stilted phrasing to signify that each side is making rather different statements on the matter. For example, President Trump’s announcement on Truth Social1 predicated the ceasefire on “complete”, “immediate” and “safe” opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in his official announcement of the ceasefire2 maintained that passage through the Strait will nevertheless be “in coordination with” the Iranian military, and AP later reported that Iran will continue to charge transit tolls in Yuan3. Whether this meets Trumps stated criteria of “complete”, “immediate” or “safe” remains a question mark.
Semantics aside, let us assume for a moment that a ceasefire has commenced as of this evening, US time, to tentatively run through April 22. During this time it is expected that negotiations between the US and Iran will take place in Pakistan, with the Iranians assuming that these will be around Iran’s proposed terms, not the earlier US proposal. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council has apparently gone thus far as to announce that the US has accepted all of Iran’s terms4, however this strains all credulity given that Iran’s demands include a complete withdrawal of US combat forces from the Persian Gulf, a complete cancellation of all US and UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and, of course, the payment of reparations. One can accept the theory that the White House hopes to negotiate away or water down most of these terms, but to have already agreed to them would be tantamount to an unconditional surrender before the talks even commenced.
Before attempting to figure out what all of this means, let us list all the possible outcomes following from tonight’s announcement.
- Iran is attacked; ceasefire collapses. This would be the third time in less than a year that Iran were attacked in the middle of negotiations. The result would be disastrous for the US in the long run, not just viz. Iran, however the possibility remains, especially if the more hawkish segment of the US establishment wishes to avoid acknowledging a humiliating defeat in the here and now.
- The talks produce no results; war resumes. Given the extent of Iranian demands, this is a fairly likely outcome. Indeed, prior to tonight I would have expected the conflict to drag on, and on, and on some more, given the incompatibility of the two sides’ core demands.
- The talks produce no results, but the US and Israel maintain a ceasefire. This would be a very curious situation for Iran – forcing it to be the one to restart hostilities. To be sure, Iranian authorities have stated outright that the war will continue at the end of the two-week period unless their demands are met5.
- The talks result in Iran backing down from its stated demands to placate the Americans. This would be utterly disastrous for Iran, given that it presently has the superior leverage, and that its internal legitimacy has now become partly grounded in continuing to fight unto victory. Not caving in at the first opportunity. The only way to explain this particular outcome would be to suggest that Iran’s economic and military resources have now been stretched to their absolute breaking point, something that seems fairly unlikely.
- The US tries to drag out the talks, hoping for a “permanent” ceasefire – at least until the next opportune moment for an attack. Surely the Iranian negotiators would see through this and give the US a hard deadline by which to accept Iran’s terms, or face new missile and drone strikes.
- The US accepts Iran’s terms in largely their present form. How President Trump’s political career survives such a comprehensive surrender I can hardly fathom.
To me, it seems that what we are seeing is an operational pause, during which the White House – oh, may it please be the hapless duo of Witkoff and Kushner who are detailed to Pakistan for the talks – will attempt to somehow attain what it wants, a cessation of hostilities until the next moment of America’s choosing, without giving the Iranians what they want, which would mean addressing the “root causes of the conflict”6 and having the US essentially end its 47-year long quest to re-subjugate Iran. In fact, I would not be surprised if the White House had no plan at all, and were simply grasping at straws at the very same time as a growing number of members of Congress began to grouse about forcibly removing the President, whether via the 25th Amendment or yet another impeachment.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon will surely use this time to rearm and refit as it is best able, though a two-week pause will not magically conjure up new supplies of scarce missiles, nor rebuild destroyed radars. But then, the Iranians are unlikely to sit still as well.
And so, two weeks hence we might find ourselves once again asking the question of – when, and even if, this will all end.
Footnotes:- Quoted at https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30554, retrieved April 7, 2026.[↩]
- Quoted at https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30570, retrieved April 7, 2026.[↩]
- Quoted in https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30603, retrieved April 7, 2026[↩]
- See https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30566, retrieved April 7, 2026[↩]
- Quoted in https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30581, retrieved April 7, 2026.[↩]
- Somewhere, Foreign Minister Lavrov is surely smiling.[↩]